LONDON, UK – Prevailing events are now clearly suggesting that the world is headed in the wrong direction, at least, economically. A global recession is near most economists are predicting.
Morgan Stanley said that the “global recession in 2020 is now our base case” with growth estimated to drop 0.3% in Q1 and 0.6% in Q2. Recovery is expected for Q3 and Q4, with growth rising by 1.8% and 2.5% respectively.
On March 10, 2020, CNN Analysis by Julia Horowitz, CNN Business, cited Morgan Stanley’s chief economist Chetan Ahya as telling clients that the investment bank thinks global growth will receive a “sizable shock” in the first half of 2020.
Ahya said Italy has the worst outbreak of coronavirus in Europe. But Ahya also “warned that if the outbreak becomes more widespread, extending beyond April and hurting companies more than previously expected, the global economy will enter a recession.”
In the Financial Times, it is reported that the world economy has fallen into recession, suffering from a “wicked cocktail” of coronavirus and the dramatic action to limit its spread, according to four former IMF chief economists.
According to the New York Times, “even President Trump’s boundless enthusiasm for the American economy has wilted in the face of what promises to be a widespread economic slowdown, as he acknowledged on Monday that the country might be heading toward a recession.”
Amid all these projections and dire revelations, leaders and officials in Africa remain dumb-founded and unserious. No strategic thinking or plan is coming out of any African central bank in a continent where food insecurity is worse, poverty is increasing daily and where unemployment continues to remain a significant problem.