By Alon Ben-Meir
The result of the Israeli election has demonstrated that the
Israeli public’s movement to the right is now consolidated, and that its
prospective reversal to the center and left-of-center is becoming increasingly
unlikely. This outcome should give serious pause to every Jew and friend of
Israel, as the consequences for Israel’s future will be extremely dire. It will
allow the newly-expected right-wing government led by Netanyahu to take any
measure of his choosing to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.
This will further undermine Israel’s democratic and Jewish foundation, and put
the country on the fast track to self-destruction, obliterating the face of
Israel as we know it.
To begin with, there has been a steady and continuing nearly
unequivocal support of the United States for successive governments throughout
Israel’s existence. The US’ enablement of Israel, specifically over the last
few decades, has allowed centrist and right-wing governments to undertake
policies, in particular the building of new and the expansion of existing
settlements, that run contrary to any prospective Israeli-Palestinian peace
based on a two-state solution. In this regard, Trump’s open-ended support of
the Netanyahu government has severely and perilously undermined Israel’s future
security and well-being, which ironically the Trump administration wants to
shield.
Second, as the Palestinian extremists continue unfortunately
to play into the hands of the Israeli right-of-center, it has made it easier
for the leaders of the right to make a strong case against the Palestinians,
and justify the enforcement of discriminatory policies and the occupation. The
building of settlements and the imposition of a massive security apparatus that
extends throughout the West Bank and Gaza further diminish the rise of an
independent Palestinian state with a contiguous land mass.
Third, the Israelis have developed a siege mentality from
their historical perspective, as well as from their experience with the
Palestinians (especially following the Second Intifada in 2000). As a result,
Israel has become increasingly self-reliant on national security matters and
suspicious of the Palestinians and the international community on the whole. As
such, Israel’s use of excessive military power to quell Palestinian resistance
became routine, and applying harsh measures against the Palestinians in the
occupied territories to keep them at bay became the norm.
The fourth reason is national security concerns. Israel
undoubtedly is the superpower in the region, and there’s not a single country
(including Iran) or combination of countries that can in fact, now or in the
foreseeable future, overwhelm Israel militarily. Nevertheless, Israelis feel
vulnerable and insecure, making national security a central theme in any future
relations with the Palestinians, which of necessity constrained the extent of
concessions the Israelis could make under any peace consideration.
Fifth is the growing, if not decisive, political strength of
the settlers, who are now in a strategic position. The settlers, represented by
various right-wing parties including Likud, have secure representation, both in
the Knesset and the government. No Israeli government would dare to evacuate
any significant number of settlers without provoking a major political crisis
and even violent resistance that will tear the country apart.
Sixth, there is a nearly constant schism between secular Jews
and the Orthodox community, which has further diluted the prospect of unity
among the Israelis themselves. Moreover, since no single party has been able to
acquire an absolute majority, elections always lead to a coalition government,
which of necessity has to compromise on significant issues, perhaps other than
security. As a result, the discord between the coalition partners to agree on a
long-term solution to the conflict with the Palestinians was put on the back
burner, which further complicated and made the conflict ever more intractable.
The consequences of this election and the certainty of forming
a right-wing government led by Netanyahu are hard to exaggerate. To start with,
if there had been any small prospect of a two-state solution, it has now
practically vanished completely under his watch. This in and of itself will
further galvanize Palestinian extremism, which undoubtedly would lead to more
frequent violence that could fuel long-term bloodshed between the two sides.
Netanyahu and his partners will now have a freer hand to act
as he has already been, to diminish the role of the judiciary; violate
international conventions, specifically in regards to the occupied territories;
implement far harsher methods to solidify the occupation; and certainly open
the door for further annexation of significant parts of the West Bank, as
Netanyahu promised to do if he were re-elected. There is no doubt that the
coalition, regardless of political differences, will stick together to create
new, irreversible facts on the ground that will bury the prospect of a
two-state solution.
Additionally, the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s
capital and Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights by Trump has rendered a
major blow to the prospect of a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace. Sadly,
whereas most of the Arab countries were edging ever closer to Israel in recent
years because of their common enemy Iran, the result of these elections will
certainly deter further improvement of relations between Israel and Arab
states, and Israel’s regional isolation will only escalate.
Moreover, Israel’s very democracy, which has for past few
years been teetering on the edge, is now poised to fall. Last summer’s Basic
Law formally declared Israel to be the nation-state of the Jewish people, which
is outright discrimination against Israeli Arabs and other non-Jewish
minorities. BDS and other punitive measures against Israel will become a common
cause supported by an increasing number of countries around the world.
Furthermore, the discord between American Jews in particular
and Israel will be far more intense, which will have major repercussions on
Jewish unity as the ideological gap between the two sides will only deepen.
Diaspora Jewry near-unanimously supports a two-state solution, which they view
as the ultimate outcome that provides Israel with security and preserves its
Jewish majority and democratic nature.
To be sure, Israel will become a de facto apartheid state as
it continues to apply different laws to Israelis living within Israel and in
the settlements, and a different set of occupation laws that govern the
Palestinians, which limits their political freedom and narrows their basic
civil rights.
Unlike any previous right-wing Israeli government, the
formation of a new government under Netanyahu may well be the most decisive and
consequential for Israel as we know it. This is nothing short of a turning
point in Israel’s history, as its reactionary, zealous, messianic, and extreme
right-wing leaders choose more territory over the future security and
prosperity of Israel, forfeiting its democracy and shattering the centuries-old
dream of the Jews to establish an independent, free, secure home and live in
peace.
It is a choice that has put Israel on the fast track toward
the abyss.
About the Author
Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.
